The Israel-Hamas war is currently in a stable situation. The intensity of the conflict has decreased, and negotiations between the two sides are ongoing. On the other hand, tensions between the United States and Israel, especially between Netanyahu and Biden, are increasing, leading to a significant rift. Additionally, a proposal foreseeing $17.6 billion in support for Israel was rejected in the U.S. House of Representatives. In light of these developments, a return of the U.S. to the conflict in Ukraine is expected. I anticipate that the aid packages put on hold due to the Israel war will be approved soon, and U.S. assistance to Ukraine will resume. At the same time, I see it likely that European countries will activate new plans for Ukraine. Indeed, a change in strategy is imperative on the Western side because Ukraine is approaching the beginning of the end.
As the famous counterattacks have failed, and due to the long absence of aid, the Ukrainian army is on the verge of losing not only its positions but also its cities to the Russian defense. Towards spring, I believe Russia’s counterattack will resume. Russia has gained significant time, especially with a robust defense against Ukraine’s counteroffensive. During this period, it breached some Western sanctions, acquired economic and military support, and notably purchased crucial weapons from Iran and North Korea. Given the current reality, I think the U.S. and European countries will have to activate new plans for war against Russia by allowing more serious military operations and providing Ukraine with more advanced weapons, particularly in terms of air power. For the sake of Ukraine and Europe’s future, the war needs to intensify and evolve into a more comprehensive conflict. In this context, supplying weapons that were not provided before will come into consideration, such as the possibility of providing F-16s to Ukraine. This longstanding issue will likely be resolved, especially since Ukrainian pilots have undergone intensive training for almost 1.5 years.
Umut Guner
