Firstly, I don’t want to delve too deeply into the numerous benefits of Ukraine’s victory for Turkey, but there are various advantages concerning Ukraine-Turkey relations, such as Baykar opening a factory in Ukraine, UAV engines being manufactured in Ukraine, naval vessels for the Ukrainian Navy being produced in Turkish shipyards, the occupation of the Turkish homeland Crimea by Russia, and the reduction of Russian air and sea dominance in the Black Sea.
If Russia, especially for its strategic interests and paradigm, sees Ukraine as a threat and eliminates it by winning the war, the only remaining threat in the region for Russia will be Turkey’s presence.
If the Ukraine war ends and the sanctions imposed on Russia are lifted, Turkey’s utility for Russia will diminish. Given the conflicting interests of Turkey and Russia in the Caucasus, Libya, Syria, and the Black Sea, the two countries’ sovereignty philosophies, state paradigms, and foreign policy interests will clash.
Russia conducts cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns against many countries, including Turkey. Ukraine’s victory could restrict Russia’s activities of this kind and strengthen Turkey’s cybersecurity. The weakening of Russia could enable Turkey to play a more active role in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Turkey’s regional influence could increase with Russia’s decline. Ukraine’s victory could shift the balance in the Black Sea in favor of Turkey. Russia’s influence in the Black Sea poses a direct security threat to Turkey. Strengthening Ukraine’s control could limit Russia’s military presence in the Black Sea.
Umut Guner
